Geopolitics
Iran
US strikes Iran by...?
December 31
70%
June 30
66%
March 31
55%
March 15
41%
March 14
37%
March 13
35%
March 12
35%
March 11
34%
March 10
33%
March 9
31%
March 8
30%
March 7
29%
March 6
26%
March 5
23%
March 4
21%
March 3
18%
March 2
16%
March 1
13%
February 28
9%
February 27
4%
February 26
1%
February 5
No
January 31
No
January 14
No
January 15
No
January 18
No
January 17
No
December 31
No
January 11
No
January 23
No
January 12
No
January 13
No
January 16
No
February 4
No
February 1
No
February 2
No
February 3
No
February 20
No
January 26
No
February 6
No
February 13
No
January 25
No
January 27
No
January 24
No
January 28
No
January 29
No
January 30
No
February 19
No
February 16
No
February 7
No
February 8
No
February 9
No
February 10
No
February 12
No
February 11
No
February 14
No
February 17
No
February 15
No
February 18
No
February 21
No
February 22
No
February 23
No
February 24
No
February 25
No
$431M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28
91%
February 28
6%
February 27
3%
February 26
1%
February 24
<1%
February 25
<1%
January 2026
No
February 2
No
February 4
No
February 6
No
February 8
No
February 10
No
February 12
No
February 14
No
February 16
No
February 18
No
February 20
No
February 22
No
February 1
No
February 3
No
February 5
No
February 7
No
February 9
No
February 11
No
February 13
No
February 15
No
February 17
No
February 19
No
February 21
No
February 23
No
$47M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by March 31
45%
Before March ET
8%
March 1
4%
March 6
3%
March 7
3%
March 20
3%
March 14
3%
March 3
3%
March 2
3%
March 13
2%
March 4
2%
March 5
2%
March 12
2%
March 21
2%
March 8
2%
March 9
1%
March 15
1%
March 10
1%
March 27
1%
March 28
1%
March 22
1%
March 18
1%
March 19
1%
March 11
<1%
March 29
<1%
March 24
<1%
March 23
<1%
March 16
<1%
March 31
<1%
March 26
<1%
March 25
<1%
March 17
<1%
March 30
<1%
$9M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
December 31
74%
June 30
67%
March 31
55%
February 28
10%
January 8
No
January 10
No
January 12
No
January 16
No
January 18
No
January 20
No
January 22
No
January 24
No
January 26
No
January 28
No
January 30
No
January 9
No
January 11
No
January 17
No
January 19
No
January 21
No
January 23
No
January 25
No
January 27
No
January 29
No
January 31
No
February 15
No
$17M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
17%
chance
$17M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
1%
chance
$12M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
10%
chance
$6M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Switzerland
>99%
Oman
<1%
Qatar
<1%
UAE
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
USA
<1%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
<1%
Iran
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
No Meeting by April 30
<1%
Italy
No
Other - Europe
No
Iraq
No
Other
No
Austria
No
Turkey
No
$373K Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
8%
chance
$2M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
<1%
chance
$1M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
3
37%
4
31%
2
14%
5
7%
1
3%
6
2%
11
2%
10
2%
9
1%
7
1%
8
1%
15+
<1%
14
<1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
0
No
$1M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
49%
chance
$3M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Iran Strike on Israel by...?
December 31
66%
March 31
46%
February 28
5%
January 15
No
January 31
No
$2M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
33%
chance
$6M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
59%
chance
$260K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
31%
chance
$160K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
20%
chance
$871K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
48%
chance
$3M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
36%
chance
$5M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Next Country US Strikes
Somalia
82%
Iran
10%
Cuba
3%
Syria
3%
Mexico
3%
Nigeria
2%
Venezuela
2%
Other
2%
Yemen
1%
Iraq
1%
Colombia
<1%
None before 2027
<1%
$51K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026