Geopolitics
Ukraine Peace Deal
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
3%
chance
$20M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
37%
chance
$10M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
<1%
chance
$6M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
15%
chance
$2M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
24%
chance
$347K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
28%
chance
$479K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
June 30
24%
March 31
9%
February 28
<1%
December 31
No
January 31
No
$1M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?
December 31
15%
June 30
7%
$67K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?
4%
chance
$49K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
June 30
15%
March 31
6%
January 31
No
$203K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
15%
chance
$111K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
31%
chance
$149K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?
12%
chance
$77K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
3%
chance
$275K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
23%
chance
$85K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
19%
chance
$45K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
29%
chance
$52K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
17%
chance
$24K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
25%
chance
$8K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
31%
chance
$77K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026