Geopolitics
Trade War
How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?
<$100b
98%
$200–500b
1%
$100–200b
<1%
$500b–1t
<1%
$1–2t
<1%
$2t+
<1%
$9M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will Trump visit China by...?
April 30, 2026
93%
March 31, 2026
73%
October 31, 2025
No
$2M Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?
15–25%
62%
5–15%
31%
25–35%
2%
<5%
2%
35%+
1%
$143K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Silver (SI) above ___ end of February?
$40
>99%
$55
>99%
$70
98%
$75
94%
$65
93%
$80
87%
$85
66%
$95
45%
$90
34%
$100
6%
$120
3%
$110
3%
$18K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?
<1%
chance
$1M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
18%
chance
$176K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Silver (SI) above ___ end of June?
$75
88%
$60
81%
$70
80%
$65
77%
$90
67%
$80
64%
$100
50%
$85
43%
$110
41%
$95
36%
$120
29%
$140
16%
$128K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Argentina
33%
Taiwan
26%
Mexico
26%
Indonesia
25%
India
23%
Brazil
23%
European Union
22%
United Kingdom
21%
South Korea
21%
Canada
20%
Japan
20%
Israel
20%
Pakistan
17%
Russia
16%
South Africa
16%
Australia
15%
Vietnam
12%
$222K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31?
95%
chance
$34K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?
3%
chance
$7K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
<500B
45%
1T–1.1T
43%
600–700B
41%
1.1T+
40%
800–900B
39%
900B–1T
39%
700–800B
36%
500–600B
35%
$16K Vol.
Feb 28, 2027