Geopolitics
US strikes Iran by...?
December 31
73%
June 30
67%
March 31
53%
March 14
41%
March 15
39%
March 13
35%
March 12
33%
March 11
32%
March 10
31%
March 9
30%
March 8
28%
March 7
27%
March 6
25%
March 5
23%
March 4
20%
March 3
19%
March 2
17%
March 1
13%
February 28
9%
February 27
5%
February 26
2%
February 5
No
January 31
No
January 14
No
January 15
No
January 18
No
January 17
No
December 31
No
January 11
No
January 23
No
January 12
No
January 13
No
January 16
No
February 4
No
February 1
No
February 2
No
February 3
No
February 20
No
January 26
No
February 6
No
February 13
No
January 25
No
January 27
No
January 24
No
January 28
No
January 29
No
January 30
No
February 19
No
February 16
No
February 7
No
February 8
No
February 9
No
February 10
No
February 12
No
February 11
No
February 14
No
February 17
No
February 15
No
February 18
No
February 21
No
February 22
No
February 23
No
February 24
No
February 25
No
$429M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28
90%
February 28
5%
February 27
3%
February 26
2%
February 24
<1%
February 25
<1%
January 2026
No
February 2
No
February 4
No
February 6
No
February 8
No
February 10
No
February 12
No
February 14
No
February 16
No
February 18
No
February 20
No
February 22
No
February 1
No
February 3
No
February 5
No
February 7
No
February 9
No
February 11
No
February 13
No
February 15
No
February 17
No
February 19
No
February 21
No
February 23
No
$47M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Delcy Rodríguez
65%
María Corina Machado
13%
Nicolás Maduro
12%
Edmundo González
5%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
2%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
No Head of State
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
$53M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by March 31
46%
Before March ET
9%
March 6
4%
March 1
4%
March 7
4%
March 3
3%
March 2
3%
March 13
2%
March 14
2%
March 8
2%
March 20
2%
March 21
2%
March 4
2%
March 5
2%
March 12
1%
March 9
1%
March 28
1%
March 10
1%
March 15
1%
March 22
1%
March 27
1%
March 18
1%
March 29
<1%
March 11
<1%
March 16
<1%
March 24
<1%
March 19
<1%
March 25
<1%
March 31
<1%
March 17
<1%
March 30
<1%
March 23
<1%
March 26
<1%
$9M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
December 31
76%
June 30
69%
March 31
55%
February 28
10%
January 8
No
January 10
No
January 12
No
January 16
No
January 18
No
January 20
No
January 22
No
January 24
No
January 26
No
January 28
No
January 30
No
January 9
No
January 11
No
January 17
No
January 19
No
January 21
No
January 23
No
January 25
No
January 27
No
January 29
No
January 31
No
February 15
No
$17M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
18%
chance
$17M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
1%
chance
$12M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by...?
March 31
>99%
February 28
98%
September 30
No
November 30
No
December 31
No
October 31
No
November 21
No
January 15
No
November 14
No
January 31
No
$5M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
3%
chance
$20M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
10%
chance
$6M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Switzerland
>99%
No Meeting by April 30
<1%
Oman
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Italy
<1%
Other - Europe
<1%
UAE
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Other
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Austria
<1%
Turkey
<1%
USA
<1%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
<1%
Iran
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
$356K Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
37%
chance
$10M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
<1%
chance
$6M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
8%
chance
$2M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
1%
chance
$3M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
8%
chance
$6M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Russia enter Bilytske by...?
March 31
99%
February 28
92%
$229K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
10%
chance
$9M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
15%
chance
$2M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Who will Trump talk to in February?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
>99%
Nigel Farage
30%
Roger Stone
30%
Mark Rutte
26%
Kevin Hassett
22%
Mohammed bin Salman
17%
Vladimir Putin
13%
Friedrich Merz
12%
Roger Goodell
10%
Emmanuel Macron
10%
Ahmed al-Sharaa
10%
Kevin Warsh
9%
Mette Frederiksen
8%
Ursula von der Leyen
8%
Rick Rieder
4%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Christopher Waller
3%
Maria Corina Machado
3%
Mark Carney
2%
Jerome Powell
2%
Pope Leo XIV
1%
Kim Jong Un
1%
MrBeast
1%
Nicolás Maduro
<1%
Ali Khamenei
<1%
Yoon Suk Yeol
<1%
Xi Jinping
Yes
Keir Starmer
Yes
$530K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026