Geopolitics
China
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
1%
chance
$3M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
10%
chance
$9M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Trump visit China by...?
April 30, 2026
93%
March 31, 2026
73%
October 31, 2025
No
$2M Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
DeepSeek V4 released by...?
March 31
68%
March 15
29%
February 28
4%
January 31
No
$227K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?
15–25%
62%
5–15%
31%
25–35%
2%
<5%
2%
35%+
1%
$143K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
16%
chance
$852K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
4%
chance
$772K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?
Brazil
8%
Russia
6%
India
6%
Ukraine
6%
Italy
5%
Netherlands
4%
U.K.
4%
Switzerland
3%
Denmark
3%
Finland
3%
Norway
3%
Sweden
2%
France
2%
Germany
2%
Palestine
2%
China
1%
Belgium
1%
Spain
1%
Israel
Yes
Turkiye
Yes
Hungary
Yes
$858K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
4%
chance
$528K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Zhang Youxia seen in public by February 28?
<1%
chance
$47K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
18%
chance
$176K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?
30%
chance
$207K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?
7%
chance
$31K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
8%
chance
$33K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31?
20%
chance
$8K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet?
15s+
44%
10–15s
23%
6–10s
11%
2–6s
8%
<2s
5%
Photographed only
3%
No Handshake
3%
$10K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026?
7%
chance
$10K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
20%
chance
$60K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Who will acquire TikTok?
Amazon
11%
Elon Musk / X (Twitter)
8%
Meta
6%
AppLovin
5%
Walmart
5%
Microsoft
3%
Larry Ellison/Oracle
Yes
$919K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
66%
chance
$15K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026