Geopolitics
Ukraine
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by...?
February 28
98%
March 31
98%
September 30
No
November 30
No
December 31
No
October 31
No
November 21
No
January 15
No
November 14
No
January 31
No
$5M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
3%
chance
$20M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
37%
chance
$10M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
<1%
chance
$6M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will Russia enter Bilytske by...?
March 31
98%
February 28
93%
$234K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
15%
chance
$2M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality on...?
March 31
14%
February 28
9%
February 27
6%
February 26
1%
February 25
<1%
February 24
<1%
February 23
<1%
February 3
Yes
February 12
Yes
February 18
No
February 19
No
February 22
No
February 1
No
February 4
No
February 10
No
February 14
No
February 20
No
February 21
No
February 2
No
February 5
No
February 8
No
February 11
No
February 15
No
February 6
No
February 7
No
February 9
No
February 13
No
February 16
No
February 17
No
$1M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?
March 31
74%
February 28
39%
$71K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
April 30
40%
March 31
16%
February 28
<1%
January 31
No
$795K Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
6%
chance
$663K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 31
85%
June 30
65%
April 30
32%
March 31
17%
February 28
<1%
December 31
No
November 30
No
January 31
No
$2M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nuclear weapon detonation by...?
Before 2027
16%
June 30
13%
March 31
4%
$347K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by...?
April 30
69%
March 31
41%
February 28
3%
$141K Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by...?
March 31
21%
February 28
5%
$151K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
March 31
39%
February 28
9%
$339K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026?
3%
chance
$2M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?
Dopropillia
63%
Druzkhivka
28%
Sloviansk
22%
Kramatorsk
18%
Zaporizhia
9%
Sumy
6%
Kherson
6%
Kharkiv
5%
$587K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
11%
chance
$2M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
24%
chance
$347K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31?
14%
chance
$13K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026