Geopolitics
Foreign Policy
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
3%
chance
$20M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
37%
chance
$10M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
<1%
chance
$6M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
1%
chance
$3M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
10%
chance
$9M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
15%
chance
$2M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
11%
chance
$28M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
December 31
35%
March 31
<1%
$345K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
49%
chance
$205K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
16%
chance
$852K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?
December 31
35%
June 30
30%
March 31
19%
January 31
No
$1M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
US strike on Mexico by...?
December 31
27%
March 31
6%
January 31
No
$3M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?
Brazil
8%
Russia
6%
India
6%
Ukraine
6%
Italy
5%
Netherlands
4%
U.K.
4%
Switzerland
3%
Denmark
3%
Finland
3%
Norway
3%
Sweden
2%
France
2%
Germany
2%
Palestine
2%
China
1%
Belgium
1%
Spain
1%
Israel
Yes
Turkiye
Yes
Hungary
Yes
$858K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
June 30, 2026
28%
March 31, 2026
6%
February 28, 2026
2%
December 31
No
November 30
No
$2M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30?
21%
chance
$5K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
14%
chance
$48K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
June 30
20%
December 31
No
February 4
No
$579K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
December 31, 2026
17%
June 30, 2026
6%
December 31, 2025
No
$2M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
34%
chance
$26K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?
4%
chance
$156K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026