Geopolitics
Gaza
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
8%
chance
$2M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?
February 26
44%
February 28
38%
February 27
34%
February 25
1%
February 24
<1%
February 23
<1%
February 16
Yes
February 2
Yes
February 9
Yes
February 15
Yes
February 1
Yes
February 14
Yes
February 19
Yes
February 5
Yes
February 12
Yes
February 20
Yes
February 3
No
February 4
No
February 10
No
February 6
No
February 7
No
February 8
No
February 21
No
February 22
No
February 11
No
February 13
No
February 17
No
February 18
No
$3M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will Israel strike Gaza on...?
February 28
37%
February 27
33%
February 26
30%
February 25
1%
February 24
<1%
February 23
<1%
February 4
Yes
February 12
Yes
February 14
Yes
February 15
Yes
February 9
Yes
February 6
Yes
February 10
Yes
February 17
Yes
February 8
Yes
February 20
Yes
February 22
No
February 1
No
February 3
No
February 11
No
February 16
No
February 18
No
February 5
No
February 21
No
February 2
No
February 7
No
February 13
No
February 19
No
$4M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
49%
chance
$3M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
64%
chance
$663K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?
Brazil
8%
Russia
6%
Italy
6%
India
6%
Ukraine
5%
Netherlands
4%
U.K.
3%
Switzerland
3%
Denmark
3%
Finland
3%
Norway
3%
France
2%
Germany
2%
Sweden
2%
Palestine
2%
Belgium
1%
China
1%
Spain
1%
Israel
Yes
Turkiye
Yes
Hungary
Yes
$859K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?
45%
chance
$32K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland
54%
Azerbaijan
22%
Kuwait
22%
Oman
18%
Syria
16%
Lebanon
13%
Saudi Arabia
7%
$273K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
75%
chance
$42K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
June 30
61%
April 30
30%
March 31
6%
$358K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
December 31
42%
June 30
16%
$58K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
June 30, 2026
28%
March 31, 2026
9%
February 28, 2026
2%
December 31
No
November 30
No
$2M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
June 30
18%
March 31
6%
October 31
No
December 31
No
November 30
No
November 7
No
$4M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
34%
chance
$26K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by February 28?
<1%
chance
$27K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?
22%
chance
$171K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?
7%
chance
$71K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?
<1%
chance
$31K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
15%
chance
$17K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026