Geopolitics
Russia
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality on...?
March 31
13%
February 28
9%
February 27
6%
February 26
1%
February 25
<1%
February 24
<1%
February 23
<1%
February 3
Yes
February 12
Yes
February 18
No
February 19
No
February 22
No
February 1
No
February 4
No
February 10
No
February 14
No
February 20
No
February 21
No
February 2
No
February 5
No
February 8
No
February 11
No
February 15
No
February 6
No
February 7
No
February 9
No
February 13
No
February 16
No
February 17
No
$1M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
April 30
39%
March 31
16%
February 28
<1%
January 31
No
$794K Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
6%
chance
$663K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Nuclear weapon detonation by...?
Before 2027
16%
June 30
14%
March 31
4%
$347K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2026?
3%
chance
$2M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?
Brazil
8%
Russia
6%
India
6%
Italy
6%
Ukraine
5%
Netherlands
4%
U.K.
4%
Switzerland
3%
Denmark
3%
Finland
3%
Norway
3%
Sweden
2%
France
2%
Germany
2%
Palestine
2%
China
1%
Belgium
1%
Spain
1%
Israel
Yes
Turkiye
Yes
Hungary
Yes
$859K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
11%
chance
$2M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay
24%
chance
$347K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?
April 30
17%
March 31
11%
February 28
<1%
January 15
No
January 31
No
$429K Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ukraine hits Moscow by...?
March 31
11%
February 28
3%
February 14
No
$80K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
28%
chance
$479K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Bank of Russia decision in March?
Decrease
68%
No Change
33%
Increase
<1%
$39K Vol.
Mar 20, 2026
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)
74%
New People (NL)
15%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
5%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
Rodina
<1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
<1%
$2M Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?
March 31
15%
November 30
No
December 31
No
$734K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Russia capture Rodynske by...?
March 31
47%
February 28
12%
September 15
No
September 30
No
October 31
No
November 30
No
December 31
No
January 31
No
$1M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?
December 31
29%
March 31
4%
November 30
No
December 31
No
January 31
No
$456K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...?
December 31
28%
June 30
14%
March 31
3%
$109K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
June 30
13%
March 31
2%
November 30
No
December 31
No
January 31
No
$1M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?
12%
chance
$139K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?
10%
chance
$127K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026