Politics
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Kevin Warsh
94%
Judy Shelton
4%
No one nominated before 2027
<1%
Stephen Miran
<1%
Christopher Waller
<1%
Michelle Bowman
<1%
Kevin Hassett
<1%
Rick Rieder
<1%
Bill Pulte
<1%
David Malpass
<1%
Howard Lutnick
<1%
Arthur Laffer
<1%
Larry Kudlow
<1%
Jerome Powell
<1%
Ron Paul
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
James Bullard
<1%
Marc Sumerlin
<1%
David Zervos
<1%
Lorie K. Logan
<1%
Philip Jefferson
<1%
Janet Yellen
<1%
Larry Lindsey
<1%
Barron Trump
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
$539M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
US strikes Iran by...?
December 31
73%
June 30
67%
March 31
53%
March 14
41%
March 15
39%
March 13
35%
March 12
33%
March 11
32%
March 10
31%
March 9
30%
March 8
28%
March 7
27%
March 6
25%
March 5
23%
March 4
20%
March 3
19%
March 2
17%
March 1
13%
February 28
9%
February 27
4%
February 26
2%
February 5
No
January 31
No
January 14
No
January 15
No
January 18
No
January 17
No
December 31
No
January 11
No
January 23
No
January 12
No
January 13
No
January 16
No
February 4
No
February 1
No
February 2
No
February 3
No
February 20
No
January 26
No
February 6
No
February 13
No
January 25
No
January 27
No
January 24
No
January 28
No
January 29
No
January 30
No
February 19
No
February 16
No
February 7
No
February 8
No
February 9
No
February 10
No
February 12
No
February 11
No
February 14
No
February 17
No
February 15
No
February 18
No
February 21
No
February 22
No
February 23
No
February 24
No
February 25
No
$429M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom
26%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
9%
Kamala Harris
6%
Jon Ossoff
4%
Josh Shapiro
4%
Pete Buttigieg
4%
Mark Kelly
3%
Andy Beshear
3%
Jon Stewart
2%
Gretchen Whitmer
2%
J.B. Pritzker
2%
Wes Moore
2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%
Ruben Gallego
1%
Roy Cooper
1%
Michelle Obama
1%
Stephen A. Smith
1%
Cory Booker
1%
Zohran Mamdani
1%
Ro Khanna
1%
John Fetterman
1%
Rahm Emanuel
1%
Mark Cuban
1%
James Talarico
1%
Barack Obama
1%
Phil Murphy
1%
Chris Murphy
1%
Gina Raimondo
<1%
Raphael Warnock
<1%
Liz Cheney
<1%
Beto O’Rourke
<1%
Andrew Yang
<1%
Jared Polis
<1%
LeBron James
<1%
Hunter Biden
<1%
MrBeast
<1%
Oprah Winfrey
<1%
George Clooney
<1%
Bernie Sanders
<1%
Kim Kardashian
<1%
Chelsea Clinton
<1%
Hillary Clinton
<1%
Tim Walz
<1%
Jasmine Crockett
<1%
$720M Vol.
Nov 7, 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
23%
Gavin Newsom
17%
Marco Rubio
8%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6%
Kamala Harris
3%
Donald Trump
2%
Josh Shapiro
2%
Jon Ossoff
2%
Pete Buttigieg
2%
Thomas Massie
2%
Jamie Dimon
2%
Andy Beshear
2%
Glenn Youngkin
2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
2%
Ron DeSantis
1%
Gretchen Whitmer
1%
JB Pritzker
1%
Elon Musk
1%
Wes Moore
1%
Tucker Carlson
1%
Ivanka Trump
1%
Donald Trump Jr.
1%
Michelle Obama
1%
Nikki Haley
1%
Tulsi Gabbard
1%
Vivek Ramaswamy
1%
Greg Abbott
1%
LeBron James
<1%
Zohran Mamdani
<1%
Eric Trump
<1%
Tim Walz
<1%
Stephen Smith
<1%
Kim Kardashian
<1%
Ro Khanna
<1%
James Talarico
<1%
$334M Vol.
Nov 7, 2028
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance
42%
Marco Rubio
15%
Donald Trump
3%
Ron DeSantis
2%
Donald Trump Jr.
2%
Glenn Youngkin
2%
Ted Cruz
2%
Ivanka Trump
2%
Elon Musk
2%
Vivek Ramaswamy
2%
Tucker Carlson
2%
Thomas Massie
2%
Rand Paul
1%
Tulsi Gabbard
1%
Brian Kemp
1%
Josh Hawley
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
Matt Gaetz
1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
1%
Nikki Haley
1%
John Thune
1%
Tom Brady
1%
Erika Kirk
1%
Greg Abbott
1%
Mike Pence
1%
Kim Kardashian
1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
1%
Byron Donalds
1%
Elise Stefanik
1%
Katie Britt
1%
Kristi Noem
1%
Steve Bannon
<1%
Eric Trump
<1%
$331M Vol.
Nov 7, 2028
Fed decision in March?
No change
97%
25 bps decrease
2%
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25+ bps increase
<1%
$173M Vol.
Mar 18, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets February 20 - February 27, 2026?
320-339
37%
300-319
34%
340-359
16%
280-299
9%
360-379
4%
380-399
<1%
260-279
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
240-259
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
No
60-79
No
80-99
No
100-119
No
120-139
No
140-159
No
160-179
No
180-199
No
200-219
No
220-239
No
$9M Vol.
Feb 27, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28
90%
February 28
5%
February 27
3%
February 26
2%
February 24
<1%
February 25
<1%
January 2026
No
February 2
No
February 4
No
February 6
No
February 8
No
February 10
No
February 12
No
February 14
No
February 16
No
February 18
No
February 20
No
February 22
No
February 1
No
February 3
No
February 5
No
February 7
No
February 9
No
February 11
No
February 13
No
February 15
No
February 17
No
February 19
No
February 21
No
February 23
No
$47M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Delcy Rodríguez
65%
María Corina Machado
13%
Nicolás Maduro
12%
Edmundo González
5%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
2%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
No Head of State
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
$53M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets February 24 - March 3, 2026?
300-319
20%
320-339
18%
280-299
16%
340-359
16%
260-279
9%
360-379
9%
380-399
3%
400-419
3%
240-259
3%
420-439
2%
440-459
1%
220-239
<1%
460-479
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
520-539
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
580+
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
<20
No
20-39
No
$3M Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
16%
chance
$9M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by March 31
47%
Before March ET
9%
March 6
4%
March 1
4%
March 7
4%
March 3
3%
March 2
3%
March 13
2%
March 14
2%
March 8
2%
March 20
2%
March 21
2%
March 4
2%
March 5
2%
March 12
1%
March 9
1%
March 28
1%
March 10
1%
March 15
1%
March 22
1%
March 27
1%
March 18
1%
March 29
<1%
March 11
<1%
March 16
<1%
March 24
<1%
March 19
<1%
March 25
<1%
March 31
<1%
March 17
<1%
March 30
<1%
March 23
<1%
March 26
<1%
$9M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
49%
Flávio Bolsonaro
35%
Renan Santos
5%
Ratinho Júnior
4%
Tarcisio de Freitas
3%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
$21M Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
December 31
76%
June 30
69%
March 31
55%
February 28
10%
January 8
No
January 10
No
January 12
No
January 16
No
January 18
No
January 20
No
January 22
No
January 24
No
January 26
No
January 28
No
January 30
No
January 9
No
January 11
No
January 17
No
January 19
No
January 21
No
January 23
No
January 25
No
January 27
No
January 29
No
January 31
No
February 15
No
$17M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Elon Musk # tweets February 27 - March 6, 2026?
320-339
17%
300-319
16%
280-299
13%
340-359
13%
360-379
13%
380-399
9%
260-279
8%
400-419
3%
240-259
3%
420-439
2%
440-459
2%
460-479
2%
220-239
1%
200-219
<1%
180-199
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
160-179
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
<20
<1%
40-59
<1%
20-39
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
$1M Vol.
Mar 6, 2026
Who will be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?
Susie Wiles
26%
Oprah Winfrey
16%
Al Gore
13%
Donald Trump
7%
Stephen Hawking
4%
Justin Trudeau
4%
Ehud Barak
4%
Quentin Tarantino
4%
Henry Kissinger
3%
Ellen Degeneres
3%
Rachel Maddow
3%
Piers Morgan
3%
Prince Andrew
3%
Jimmy Kimmel
3%
Tony Blair
3%
Bernie Sanders
3%
Stephen Colbert
3%
Robert Downey Jr.
3%
David Koch
3%
Kirsten Gillibrand
2%
Mira Nair (Mamdani's Mom)
2%
Sean Combs
2%
Jamie Dimon
2%
Larry Page
2%
Tom Hanks
2%
Anderson Cooper
2%
Elon Musk
1%
Bill Clinton
1%
Bill Gates
1%
Alec Baldwin
1%
Alan Dershowitz
1%
Michael Jackson
<1%
Kevin Spacey
<1%
Joe Biden
<1%
Chuck Schumer
<1%
Howard Lutnick
<1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
<1%
Reid Hoffman
<1%
Hillary Clinton
<1%
Jay-Z
<1%
Leonardo DiCaprio
<1%
David Copperfield
<1%
Woody Allen
<1%
Barack Obama
<1%
Noam Chomsky
<1%
Zohran Mamdani
<1%
Rupert Murdoch
<1%
$1M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
18%
chance
$17M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Texas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
James Talarico
69%
Jasmine Crockett
32%
Emily Morgul
<1%
Colin Allred
<1%
Michael Swanson
<1%
Beto O'Rourke
<1%
$1M Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
1%
chance
$12M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
3%
chance
$20M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026