Climate & Science

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Measles cases in U.S. by February 28?

1000

99%

1050

82%

1100

14%

1150

2%

1200

2%

1250

1%

1300

<1%

800

Yes

$846K Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

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Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

Morgan Stanley

54%

Goldman Sachs

36%

Bank of America

4%

JPMorgan

1%

UBS

<1%

Citigroup

<1%

Barclays

<1%

Deutsche Bank

<1%

Wells Fargo

<1%

$593K Vol.

Dec 31, 2027

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Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑1k

>99%

↑2k

92%

↑3k

73%

↑4k

55%

↑5k

49%

↑7.5k

29%

↑10k

22%

↑12.5k

16%

↑500

Yes

$7M Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes February 23 - March 1?

0

66%

1

28%

2

7%

5

2%

3

1%

4

<1%

>5

<1%

$158K Vol.

Mar 1, 2026

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February 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

1.15–1.19ºC

49%

1.10–1.14ºC

24%

1.20–1.24ºC

15%

<1.05ºC

4%

1.05–1.09ºC

4%

>1.24ºC

3%

$449K Vol.

Mar 10, 2026

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Precipitation in Seattle in February?

<3"

97%

3-4"

2%

5-6"

1%

4-5"

<1%

>8"

<1%

7-8"

<1%

6-7"

<1%

$254K Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

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How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

1250+

35%

1200–1249

32%

<950

15%

1150–1199

12%

1100–1149

7%

1050–1099

7%

1000–1049

5%

950–999

3%

$20K Vol.

Jan 10, 2027

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Precipitation in NYC in February?

2-3"

96%

3-4"

5%

<2"

<1%

4-5"

<1%

5-6"

<1%

>6"

<1%

$210K Vol.

Feb 28, 2026

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NASA Artemis II

April 30

34%

March 31

1%

February 28

<1%

February 7

No

$529K Vol.

Mar 31, 2026

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How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<5

43%

5-6

34%

9-10

12%

7-8

7%

11-12

5%

>16

5%

13-14

1%

15-16

<1%

$287K Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

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How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?

8+

60%

7

18%

6

14%

5

5%

4

2%

3

1%

0

No

2

No

1

No

$1M Vol.

Jun 30, 2026

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How many Tornadoes in the US in February?

30–59

94%

60–89

4%

90–119

1%

<30

<1%

120+

<1%

$194K Vol.

Mar 10, 2026

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Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

2

41%

4

30%

1

15%

3

10%

6 or lower

4%

5

<1%

$1M Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

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How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

1

51%

0

27%

2

7%

4

7%

3

5%

5+

1%

$407K Vol.

Mar 31, 2027

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SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

55%

chance

$80K Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

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Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX

83%

OpenAI

6%

Anthropic

5%

ByteDance

2%

Discord

2%

Databricks

1%

Perplexity AI

<1%

Stripe

<1%

Waymo

<1%

Revolut

<1%

Kraken

<1%

SHEIN

<1%

$303K Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

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What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

$X

60%

$STAR

14%

$SX

9%

$SPAX

9%

$MARS

3%

$SEX

3%

$SPC

<1%

$SPACE

<1%

$2M Vol.

Dec 31, 2027

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SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

1T+

89%

No IPO before 2028

5%

600B–700B

2%

900B–1T

1%

800B–900B

<1%

<500B

<1%

700B–800B

<1%

500B–600B

<1%

$2M Vol.

Dec 31, 2027

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How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

11–13

35%

14–16

23%

8–10

18%

17–19

13%

20+

7%

5–7

3%

<5

2%

$723K Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

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Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

22%

chance

$118K Vol.

Dec 31, 2026