World
US strikes Iran by...?
December 31
73%
June 30
67%
March 31
53%
March 14
41%
March 15
39%
March 13
35%
March 12
33%
March 11
32%
March 10
31%
March 9
30%
March 8
28%
March 7
27%
March 6
25%
March 5
23%
March 4
20%
March 3
19%
March 2
17%
March 1
13%
February 28
9%
February 27
5%
February 26
2%
February 5
No
January 31
No
January 14
No
January 15
No
January 18
No
January 17
No
December 31
No
January 11
No
January 23
No
January 12
No
January 13
No
January 16
No
February 4
No
February 1
No
February 2
No
February 3
No
February 20
No
January 26
No
February 6
No
February 13
No
January 25
No
January 27
No
January 24
No
January 28
No
January 29
No
January 30
No
February 19
No
February 16
No
February 7
No
February 8
No
February 9
No
February 10
No
February 12
No
February 11
No
February 14
No
February 17
No
February 15
No
February 18
No
February 21
No
February 22
No
February 23
No
February 24
No
February 25
No
$429M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28
90%
February 28
5%
February 27
3%
February 26
2%
February 24
<1%
February 25
<1%
January 2026
No
February 2
No
February 4
No
February 6
No
February 8
No
February 10
No
February 12
No
February 14
No
February 16
No
February 18
No
February 20
No
February 22
No
February 1
No
February 3
No
February 5
No
February 7
No
February 9
No
February 11
No
February 13
No
February 15
No
February 17
No
February 19
No
February 21
No
February 23
No
$47M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Péter Magyar
62%
Viktor Orbán
38%
László Toroczkai
1%
István Kapitány
<1%
Klára Dobrev
<1%
János Lázár
<1%
$24M Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by March 31
46%
Before March ET
9%
March 6
4%
March 1
4%
March 7
4%
March 3
3%
March 2
3%
March 13
2%
March 14
2%
March 8
2%
March 20
2%
March 21
2%
March 4
2%
March 5
2%
March 12
1%
March 9
1%
March 28
1%
March 10
1%
March 15
1%
March 22
1%
March 27
1%
March 18
1%
March 29
<1%
March 11
<1%
March 16
<1%
March 24
<1%
March 19
<1%
March 25
<1%
March 31
<1%
March 17
<1%
March 30
<1%
March 23
<1%
March 26
<1%
$9M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
49%
Flávio Bolsonaro
35%
Renan Santos
5%
Ratinho Júnior
4%
Tarcisio de Freitas
3%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
$21M Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
December 31
76%
June 30
69%
March 31
55%
February 28
10%
January 8
No
January 10
No
January 12
No
January 16
No
January 18
No
January 20
No
January 22
No
January 24
No
January 26
No
January 28
No
January 30
No
January 9
No
January 11
No
January 17
No
January 19
No
January 21
No
January 23
No
January 25
No
January 27
No
January 29
No
January 31
No
February 15
No
$17M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
18%
chance
$17M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
1%
chance
$12M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by...?
March 31
>99%
February 28
98%
September 30
No
November 30
No
December 31
No
October 31
No
November 21
No
January 15
No
November 14
No
January 31
No
$5M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
3%
chance
$20M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Paris Mayoral Election
Emmanuel Grégoire
61%
Rachida Dati
36%
Sarah Knafo
2%
Pierre-Yves Bournazel
<1%
Sophia Chikirou
<1%
David Belliard
<1%
Thierry Mariani
<1%
$3M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
10%
chance
$6M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
37%
chance
$10M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
<1%
chance
$6M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
1%
chance
$3M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
8%
chance
$6M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
10%
chance
$9M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
No Next PM in 2026
39%
Angela Rayner
19%
Wes Streeting
11%
Ed Miliband
7%
Nigel Farage
7%
Rupert Lowe
6%
Andy Burnham
3%
Shabana Mahmood
2%
Yvette Cooper
2%
Al Carns
1%
Lucy Powell
1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
David Lammy
<1%
Rachel Reeves
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
$1M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Next French Presidential Election
Jordan Bardella
30%
Édouard Philippe
15%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
11%
Marine Le Pen
10%
Bruno Retailleau
7%
Dominique de Villepin
5%
Gabriel Attal
4%
François Hollande
3%
David Lisnard
3%
Sarah Knafo
2%
Raphaël Glucksmann
2%
Jean Castex
2%
Sébastien Lecornu
2%
Juan Branco
<1%
François Ruffin
<1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
<1%
Éric Zemmour
<1%
Gérald Darmanin
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
Manuel Bompard
<1%
Marine Tondelier
<1%
Olivier Faure
<1%
Mathilde Panot
<1%
Clémence Guetté
<1%
François Asselineau
<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%
Valérie Pécresse
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
Xavier Bertrand
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
Michel Barnier
<1%
François Bayrou
<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
$9M Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
Colombia Presidential Election
Iván Cepeda Castro
38%
Abelardo de la Espriella
38%
Paloma Valencia
8%
Roy Barreras
6%
Claudia López (IND)
3%
Sergio Fajardo (DC)
1%
Juan Carlos Pinzón
<1%
Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)
<1%
Vicky Dávila (IND)
<1%
Daniel Quintero
<1%
Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)
<1%
David Luna Sánchez (IND)
<1%
Juan Manuel Galán (NL)
<1%
Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)
<1%
Enrique Peñalosa
<1%
Mauricio Cárdenas
<1%
Gustavo Bolívar (HC)
<1%
Miguel Uribe Turbay (CD)
No
$5M Vol.
Jun 21, 2026