Geopolitics
Middle East
US strikes Iran by...?
December 31
71%
June 30
65%
March 31
55%
March 15
40%
March 14
38%
March 13
37%
March 12
36%
March 11
35%
March 10
33%
March 9
31%
March 8
30%
March 7
27%
March 6
26%
March 5
24%
March 4
22%
March 3
18%
March 2
15%
March 1
13%
February 28
9%
February 27
4%
February 26
1%
February 5
No
January 31
No
January 14
No
January 15
No
January 18
No
January 17
No
December 31
No
January 11
No
January 23
No
January 12
No
January 13
No
January 16
No
February 4
No
February 1
No
February 2
No
February 3
No
February 20
No
January 26
No
February 6
No
February 13
No
January 25
No
January 27
No
January 24
No
January 28
No
January 29
No
January 30
No
February 19
No
February 16
No
February 7
No
February 8
No
February 9
No
February 10
No
February 12
No
February 11
No
February 14
No
February 17
No
February 15
No
February 18
No
February 21
No
February 22
No
February 23
No
February 24
No
February 25
No
$431M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by February 28
91%
February 28
5%
February 27
3%
February 26
1%
February 24
<1%
February 25
<1%
January 2026
No
February 2
No
February 4
No
February 6
No
February 8
No
February 10
No
February 12
No
February 14
No
February 16
No
February 18
No
February 20
No
February 22
No
February 1
No
February 3
No
February 5
No
February 7
No
February 9
No
February 11
No
February 13
No
February 15
No
February 17
No
February 19
No
February 21
No
February 23
No
$47M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
US next strikes Iran on...?
No strike by March 31
45%
Before March ET
10%
March 1
4%
March 6
3%
March 7
3%
March 2
3%
March 13
3%
March 3
3%
March 14
2%
March 20
2%
March 4
2%
March 5
2%
March 8
2%
March 21
2%
March 12
1%
March 9
1%
March 15
1%
March 10
1%
March 27
1%
March 28
1%
March 22
1%
March 18
1%
March 11
<1%
March 19
<1%
March 16
<1%
March 29
<1%
March 24
<1%
March 23
<1%
March 31
<1%
March 26
<1%
March 25
<1%
March 17
<1%
March 30
<1%
$9M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
US/Israel strikes Iran by...?
December 31
74%
June 30
67%
March 31
56%
February 28
9%
January 8
No
January 10
No
January 12
No
January 16
No
January 18
No
January 20
No
January 22
No
January 24
No
January 26
No
January 28
No
January 30
No
January 9
No
January 11
No
January 17
No
January 19
No
January 21
No
January 23
No
January 25
No
January 27
No
January 29
No
January 31
No
February 15
No
$17M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
17%
chance
$17M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
1%
chance
$12M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
10%
chance
$6M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
8%
chance
$2M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?
February 26
43%
February 28
38%
February 27
34%
February 25
<1%
February 24
<1%
February 23
<1%
February 16
Yes
February 2
Yes
February 9
Yes
February 15
Yes
February 1
Yes
February 14
Yes
February 19
Yes
February 5
Yes
February 12
Yes
February 20
Yes
February 3
No
February 4
No
February 10
No
February 6
No
February 7
No
February 8
No
February 21
No
February 22
No
February 11
No
February 13
No
February 17
No
February 18
No
$3M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
<1%
chance
$1M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
3
36%
4
32%
2
14%
5
7%
1
3%
6
2%
11
2%
10
2%
9
1%
8
1%
7
1%
15+
<1%
12
<1%
14
<1%
13
<1%
0
No
$1M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Israel strike Gaza on...?
February 28
37%
February 27
33%
February 26
30%
February 25
<1%
February 24
<1%
February 23
<1%
February 4
Yes
February 12
Yes
February 14
Yes
February 15
Yes
February 9
Yes
February 6
Yes
February 10
Yes
February 17
Yes
February 8
Yes
February 20
Yes
February 22
No
February 1
No
February 3
No
February 11
No
February 16
No
February 18
No
February 5
No
February 21
No
February 2
No
February 7
No
February 13
No
February 19
No
$4M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
1%
chance
$241K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
49%
chance
$3M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Iran Strike on Israel by...?
December 31
70%
March 31
47%
February 28
5%
January 15
No
January 31
No
$2M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
33%
chance
$6M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
57%
chance
$260K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?
30%
chance
$159K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
17%
chance
$870K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
47%
chance
$3M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026