Climate & Science
Science
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
16%
chance
$9M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Measles cases in U.S. by February 28?
1000
99%
1050
86%
1100
22%
1150
5%
1200
2%
1250
1%
1300
<1%
800
Yes
$849K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑1k
>99%
↑2k
92%
↑3k
73%
↑4k
55%
↑5k
49%
↑7.5k
29%
↑10k
22%
↑12.5k
16%
↑500
Yes
$7M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
February 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC
51%
1.10–1.14ºC
23%
1.20–1.24ºC
16%
1.05–1.09ºC
4%
<1.05ºC
3%
>1.24ºC
3%
$452K Vol.
Mar 10, 2026
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Hong Wang
85%
Jacob Tsimerman
74%
Yu Deng
47%
Sam Raskin
45%
Jack Thorne
44%
Will Sawin
33%
John Pardon
30%
Julian Sahasrabudhe
22%
Alexander Efimov
17%
Aleksandr Logunov
8%
$235K Vol.
Jul 30, 2026
Precipitation in Seattle in February?
<3"
97%
3-4"
2%
4-5"
<1%
7-8"
<1%
>8"
<1%
5-6"
<1%
6-7"
<1%
$255K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+
34%
1200–1249
33%
<950
14%
1150–1199
11%
950–999
10%
1050–1099
8%
1000–1049
8%
1100–1149
8%
$23K Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
Precipitation in NYC in February?
2-3"
96%
3-4"
4%
<2"
<1%
4-5"
<1%
5-6"
<1%
>6"
<1%
$210K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
NASA Artemis II
April 30
34%
March 31
1%
February 28
<1%
February 7
No
$529K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<5
42%
5-6
34%
9-10
12%
11-12
5%
7-8
5%
>16
5%
13-14
1%
15-16
<1%
$288K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?
8+
60%
7
18%
6
14%
5
5%
4
2%
3
1%
0
No
2
No
1
No
$1M Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
How many Tornadoes in the US in February?
30–59
94%
60–89
4%
90–119
1%
<30
<1%
120+
<1%
$194K Vol.
Mar 10, 2026
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2
41%
4
30%
1
15%
3
10%
6 or lower
4%
5
<1%
$1M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
1
51%
0
28%
2
7%
4
7%
3
5%
5+
1%
$407K Vol.
Mar 31, 2027
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
200 or more
31%
140-159
28%
180-199
20%
160-179
20%
100-119
4%
120-139
4%
<100
<1%
$175K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
57%
chance
$80K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
39%
chance
$287K Vol.
May 31, 2026
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX
83%
OpenAI
6%
Anthropic
5%
ByteDance
2%
Discord
2%
Databricks
1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Kraken
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
$304K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
11–13
35%
14–16
23%
8–10
18%
17–19
13%
20+
7%
5–7
3%
<5
2%
$723K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
40%
chance
$46K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026