Politics
Trump
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Kevin Warsh
94%
Judy Shelton
4%
No one nominated before 2027
<1%
Stephen Miran
<1%
Kevin Hassett
<1%
Christopher Waller
<1%
Rick Rieder
<1%
Michelle Bowman
<1%
Bill Pulte
<1%
David Malpass
<1%
Howard Lutnick
<1%
Arthur Laffer
<1%
Larry Kudlow
<1%
Jerome Powell
<1%
Ron Paul
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
James Bullard
<1%
Marc Sumerlin
<1%
David Zervos
<1%
Lorie K. Logan
<1%
Philip Jefferson
<1%
Janet Yellen
<1%
Larry Lindsey
<1%
Barron Trump
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
$539M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Delcy Rodríguez
66%
María Corina Machado
13%
Nicolás Maduro
12%
Edmundo González
5%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
2%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
No Head of State
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
$54M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
How long will the DHS shutdown last?
14+ days
>99%
21+ days
95%
30+ days
74%
60+ days
21%
5+ days
Yes
3+ days
Yes
7+ days
Yes
10+ days
Yes
$1M Vol.
Mar 14, 2026
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Switzerland
>99%
Oman
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Italy
<1%
Other - Europe
<1%
UAE
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Other
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Austria
<1%
Turkey
<1%
USA
<1%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
<1%
Iran
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
No Meeting by April 30
<1%
$373K Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?
26%
chance
$272K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?
<$100b
98%
$200–500b
1%
$100–200b
<1%
$2t+
<1%
$500b–1t
<1%
$1–2t
<1%
$9M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts February 20 - February 27, 2026?
80-99
70%
100-119
20%
120-139
3%
140-159
2%
60-79
<1%
180-199
<1%
200+
<1%
160-179
<1%
<20
No
20-39
No
40-59
No
$289K Vol.
Feb 27, 2026
Who will Trump talk to in February?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
>99%
Nigel Farage
20%
Kevin Hassett
20%
Roger Stone
19%
Vladimir Putin
17%
Friedrich Merz
11%
Mark Rutte
10%
Ahmed al-Sharaa
9%
Emmanuel Macron
8%
Mette Frederiksen
7%
Roger Goodell
7%
Kevin Warsh
6%
Ursula von der Leyen
5%
Mohammed bin Salman
5%
Rick Rieder
3%
Christopher Waller
3%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Maria Corina Machado
3%
Jerome Powell
1%
Pope Leo XIV
1%
MrBeast
1%
Kim Jong Un
1%
Ali Khamenei
<1%
Nicolás Maduro
<1%
Mark Carney
<1%
Yoon Suk Yeol
<1%
Xi Jinping
Yes
Keir Starmer
Yes
$566K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
How many times will the US strike Somalia in February?
10-13
66%
14-17
32%
18-21
3%
22+
<1%
≤5
No
6-9
No
$1M Vol.
Mar 4, 2026
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?
June 30
21%
March 31
6%
$911K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
1%
chance
$241K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Kevin Warsh formally nominated as Fed Chair by...?
March 31
82%
February 28
4%
February 6
No
February 2
No
February 18
No
$2M Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Trump out as President by March 31?
2%
chance
$4M Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts February 24 - March 3, 2026?
80-99
29%
100-119
22%
120-139
20%
60-79
14%
140-159
6%
40-59
4%
160-179
3%
20-39
2%
180-199
1%
200+
1%
<20
1%
$85K Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
11%
chance
$28M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Trump out as President before 2027?
15%
chance
$4M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
What will Trump say in February?
Atomic Energy Commission
17%
Oblivion
14%
Gulf of America
13%
Knucklehead / Numskull / Numbskull
12%
Microcosm
11%
Antifa
9%
Statuary marble
8%
Skedaddle
8%
Daddy
7%
Kamikaze
7%
Deadlock
6%
Migrant Crime
6%
Bitcoin
6%
Penguin
5%
Tariff King
5%
Major Non-NATO Ally
4%
Nutjob
3%
N-Word
2%
Tango
Yes
Magnet
Yes
Discombobulator
Yes
Uber
Yes
Filibuster
Yes
Nine Wars / Ninth War
Yes
$295K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
17%
chance
$870K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Trump visit China by...?
April 30, 2026
93%
March 31, 2026
73%
October 31, 2025
No
$2M Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28?
84%
chance
$146K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026