Politics
Courts
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
18%
chance
$176K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Nancy Guthrie kidnapper arrested by February 28?
3%
chance
$187K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?
27%
chance
$89K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Maduro Prison Time?
60+
37%
No prison time
35%
40–60
14%
<20
10%
20–40
5%
$183K Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Will Trump sue Trevor Noah by March 31?
9%
chance
$35K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
4%
chance
$212K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
BitBoy convicted?
13%
chance
$27K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
51%
chance
$71K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
97%
chance
$11K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
18%
chance
$21K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Trump sue NYT/Siena over polling by Feb 28?
2%
chance
$3K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Rojas guilty in Texas illegal abortion case?
2%
chance
$60K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
December 31
53%
March 31
7%
February 28
1%
$15K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
12%
chance
$5K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
60%
chance
$3K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
7%
chance
$5K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
L.A. U-Haul attack perp charged with terrorism?
<1%
chance
$20K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
December 31
45%
July 31
16%
$913K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Jerome Powell arrested by March 31?
<1%
chance
$35K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Netanyahu arrested by March 31?
1%
chance
$15K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026