Climate & Science
Space
NASA Artemis II
April 30
34%
March 31
1%
February 28
<1%
February 7
No
$529K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
<5
42%
5-6
34%
9-10
12%
11-12
5%
7-8
5%
>16
5%
13-14
1%
15-16
<1%
$288K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
200 or more
31%
140-159
28%
180-199
20%
160-179
20%
100-119
4%
120-139
4%
<100
<1%
$175K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceX
83%
OpenAI
6%
Anthropic
5%
ByteDance
2%
Discord
2%
Databricks
1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Kraken
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
$304K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
76%
chance
$35K Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
22%
chance
$118K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Space FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$5M
73%
$15M
45%
$40M
25%
$60M
20%
$80M
11%
$100M
10%
$120M
6%
$160M
3%
$200M
3%
$140M
3%
$411K Vol.
Jan 1, 2027
Natural Disaster in 2026?
28%
chance
$152K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
43%
chance
$221K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Higher Strikes)
2.0T+
39%
1.6T–1.8T
13%
<1.0T
9%
1.8T–2.0T
9%
1.2T–1.4T
8%
1.4T–1.6T
6%
No IPO before 2028
5%
1.0T–1.2T
3%
$274K Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?
4%
chance
$573K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2%
chance
$88K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?
12%
chance
$100K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
95%
chance
$694 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
6%
chance
$4K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX IPO by ___ ?
December 31
90%
September 30
77%
June 30
54%
March 31
4%
$9K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026