Finance
Fed Rates
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?
Kevin Warsh
94%
Judy Shelton
4%
No one nominated before 2027
<1%
Stephen Miran
<1%
Kevin Hassett
<1%
Christopher Waller
<1%
Rick Rieder
<1%
Michelle Bowman
<1%
Bill Pulte
<1%
David Malpass
<1%
Howard Lutnick
<1%
Arthur Laffer
<1%
Larry Kudlow
<1%
Jerome Powell
<1%
Ron Paul
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
James Bullard
<1%
Marc Sumerlin
<1%
David Zervos
<1%
Lorie K. Logan
<1%
Philip Jefferson
<1%
Janet Yellen
<1%
Larry Lindsey
<1%
Barron Trump
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
$539M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Fed decision in March?
No change
97%
25 bps decrease
2%
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25+ bps increase
<1%
$174M Vol.
Mar 18, 2026
Fed decision in April?
No change
89%
25 bps decrease
8%
50+ bps decrease
1%
25+ bps increase
1%
$3M Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
2 (50 bps)
26%
3 (75 bps)
21%
1 (25 bps)
18%
4 (100 bps)
11%
0 (0 bps)
10%
5 (125 bps)
6%
12+ (300+ bps)
3%
6 (150 bps)
3%
8 (200 bps)
1%
7 (175 bps)
<1%
9 (225 bps)
<1%
10 (250 bps)
<1%
11 (275 bps)
<1%
$7M Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
May 14
2%
March 31
<1%
$1M Vol.
May 14, 2026
Fed Decision in June?
No change
50%
25 bps decrease
44%
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps increase
2%
50+ bps increase
<1%
$452K Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
Cut–Pause–Pause
97%
Cut–Pause–Cut
2%
Other
<1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
No
Pause–Cut–Cut
No
$1M Vol.
Mar 18, 2026
Fed rate cut by...?
December Meeting
73%
October Meeting
63%
September Meeting
57%
July Meeting
56%
June Meeting
55%
April Meeting
13%
March Meeting
3%
January Meeting
No
$903K Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↓ 3.25%
93%
↓ 3.0%
82%
↓ 2.75%
51%
↓ 2.5%
21%
↓ 2.25%
15%
↓ 2.0%
13%
↓ 0.75%
11%
↓ 1.75%
8%
↓ 1.5%
7%
↓ 1.0%
6%
↓ 0.5%
6%
↓ 0.25%
5%
↓ 1.25%
5%
↓ 0%
5%
↑ 4.25%
5%
↑ 5.5%
4%
↑ 4.5%
3%
↑ 4.75%
3%
↑ 5.0%
3%
↑ 5.25%
3%
↓ 3.5%
Yes
$659K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?
<1%
chance
$115K Vol.
Feb 28, 2026
Fed rate hike in 2026?
9%
chance
$67K Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
18%
chance
$34K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
4.0%
94%
3.9%
82%
3.8%
75%
3.7%
53%
3.6%
39%
3.5%
25%
3.0%
16%
2.0%
8%
1.0%
6%
$65K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
4%
chance
$212K Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
97%
chance
$11K Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.25%
30%
3.0%
18%
3.5%
18%
2.75%
11%
3.75%
7%
2.5%
5%
≤1.0%
4%
2.25%
3%
4.0%
2%
1.25
<1%
1.5%
<1%
1.75%
<1%
2.0%
<1%
4.25%
<1%
≥ 4.5%
<1%
$254K Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?
December 31
83%
May 30
65%
$90K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)
Pause–Pause–Pause
87%
Pause–Pause–Cut
8%
Pause–Cut–Cut
3%
Other
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Cut–Pause–Pause
No
Cut–Cut–Pause
No
Cut–Pause–Cut
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
No
$71K Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.4%
51%
4.5%
45%
4.6%
29%
4.8%
15%
5.0%
13%
5.5%
10%
5.2%
9%
5.7%
7%
6.0%
6%
4.3%
Yes
$82K Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates
93%
chance
$38K Vol.
Mar 20, 2026