How many times will the US strike Somalia in February?
$1.05M Vol.
5d
6h
19m
End date
Mar 4, 2026
$1,045,878 Vol.
Outcome
% Chance
10-13
10-13
$168.15K Vol.
65%
14-17
14-17
$153.04K Vol.
31%
18-21
18-21
$183.48K Vol.
3%
22+
22+
$99.21K Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between February 1 and February 28, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by March 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.