
How strong will Koguma be?

Oct 21, 2026
$4.84K Vol.

End date: Oct 21, 2026
Outcomes

Very strong
$2.33K Vol.
41%
41%

Strong
$1.74K Vol.
26%
26%

Violent
$539.59 Vol.
22%
22%

Severe tropical storm or weaker
$234.58 Vol.
12%
12%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Koguma. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Koguma in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". If JMA never assigns Koguma an intensity class, this market will resolve to "Severe tropical storm or weaker". JMA's own bounds: "Severe tropical storm or weaker" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), "Strong" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), "Very strong" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and "Violent" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more.
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